25. Trading Cycle Low


A Trading Cycle (TC) Low estimates how many bars from low to low. The TC LOW just measures the market from low to low.  

Alpha Hunters TC LOW count is from 16 to 28 bars from low to low. At Alpha Hunters, we do not measure the TC low if before 16 bars, but will measure it if it happens past 28 bars.

All TC lows occur below the 15 period moving average. 

Meaning that if the market is way above the 15 period moving average and its been 25 plus bars from the last TC low, then one might expect the market to at least drop below the 15 period moving average and that is actually correct. 

Note: if the market is moving up for example, the 15 period moving average price level will move up on each new bar. Meaning if you expected one price level drop, this level will move up on each new bar and it is best to calculate this into your exit price if you sold into this. 

Note: The fade is the buy the TC low. 

  • Keep in mind all the other models, were we are in the indicators? Are they in the buy zones? 
  • Were is the market in the cycle down count, is it at least past 5 to 8 bars down on the shorter term charts? 
  • Is the general trend up, sideways, etc? 
  • Are the longer term charts up? Do they have lots more time to move up and you are playing the TC low on a shorter term chart, 5m, 10m, 15m?..

This short list is how we look at all trades models. We start to combine them and put the puzzle together and no matter how good it may look, we fish for fill prices to start the trade and hardly never go all in on the first entry, but rather go fish and Fast Eddie (Scale) into trades. Why? because NO ONE can tell you this is the exact bottom in this example. NO ONE can! so, we suggest to use money management ideas of scaling into trades and out of trades. 

Another Trade opportunity - If the market is over due for a TC low and the market is trading above the Moving Average, we then start to outline a move back to the Moving Average soon to make the TC LOW. 

Trading Cycle Plot Automatically - The Alpha CT 04 CycleWave Indicator will plot all the cycle counts plus highlight the TC lows automatically.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Next -> Fade Models  

26. 100% of Previous Bar's Range

Futures, Options on Futures and Forex trading involves a substantial degree of risk of loss and is not suitable for all individuals. An investor could lose the entire investment or, in some cases, more than the initial investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.